14 2 5 3 Alpine Nature 2030 Creating ecological connectivity for generations to come 202 Table 12 Main factors influencing ecological connectivity in Ecological Potential Areas in the coming decades Active factors Active factors Development and trends in the next decades Impacts for the area in 2030 1 Nature Protection Policy ó Legal framework provides competences to protected areas to act beyond their territory Strategies developed to link non fragmented spaces to large territo rial patches for the survival of wildlife in the Alps ó Possibility to develop larger areas of non fragmented habitats in order to maintain biodiversity for the next genera tions ecological potential areas ó Legal framework provides mediation and expertise functions to protected area managers outside of their territory ó Limited possibility to achieve some con tractual based links with special measures between two or more areas of non frag mented habitats ó No change according to current legislation ó Without a legal framework and more competences for the protected area managers or other public actors tak ing over a proactive part in connectivity conservation the establishment of large Alpine non fragmented areas does not seem realistic 2 Social effects of demographic de velopment ó No important change to the current situation ó No impact or positive impact for the establishment of larger connected areas ó Polarisation of demographic migrations to different Alpine areas ó May in some situations hinder the linkage between valuable natural spaces ó General increase of the Alpine population even in rural areas ó A signi cant increase of the Alpine population in rural areas will make the establishment of large connected areas more dif cult due to increased land use con icts and needs as well as increased infrastructure development roads energy transports 3 Economic develop ment industries ó Areas with sustainable land use activities protected areas or Natura 2000 sites at all altitudinal levels ó High potential for the creation of large ecological connectivity areas ecological potential areas ó Some concentrated economic development areas ó Limited impacts on connectivity ó New industrial or intensive economic activities ó Low probability of using the potential of connectivity in areas impacted by new industrial or economic development 4 Tourism ó Potential connectivity areas are free from heavy infrastructure such as ski resorts and access roads to touristic sites ó Good opportunity to link large non fragmented areas ó Very moderate touristic development based on the sustainable access to nature ó The establishment of large areas with interconnected and non fragmented habitats may be more dif cult locally ó New touristic sites are developed in these areas with potential for connectivity ó Limits the establishment of large connectivity areas ó denotes an essentially positive development ó represents a relatively stable neutral development ó signi es a problematic progression concerning ecological connectivity Source Guido Plassmann 2016

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