14 2 5 3 Alpine Nature 2030 Creating ecological connectivity for generations to come 194 Table 11 Main factors influencing ecological connectivity in Ecological Conservation Areas in the coming decades Active factors Active factors Development and trends in the next decades Impacts for the area in 2030 1 Nature Protection Policy ó A well thought out custom tailored conservation concept is applied to such areas in order to conserve their well connected habitats ó A high probability exists to conserve these intact areas ó No change in actual conservation policy ó A high risk of alteration of these areas is probable as present protection and con servation policies and legislation are not suf cient or not well applied for the large scale conservation of these areas since speci c connectivity measures are mostly missing ó More space is given to new infrastructure and energy projects ó Alteration and destruction of the last intact and functioning large scale con nected habitats is very probable 2 Social effects of demographic de velopment ó Low stable or rural exodus ó No impact no change in the situation ó Mid level immigration due to attractive ness of landscapes close to urban centres ó Most of the intact habitats are not im pacted by this situation only in conjunc tion with increased interest in leisure ac tivities such as Alpine skiing mountain biking ó High immigration especially into intact still functioning inter connected habitats ó Will impact the remnant well connected areas with new infrastructure and set tlements high level of activities due to the attractiveness of landscapes and their leisure and recreation potential 3 Economic develop ment industries ó No additional industrial infrastructure in rural Alpine areas ó No impact on these intact well function ing connectivity areas ó Limited new economic activities in areas with still intact natural spaces ó Locally connectivity potentially disrupted if infrastructure fragments habitats ó New infrastructure and increased activi ties in rural and mountainous areas due to the attractiveness of the landscapes ó Impact on several habitat connections and larger connected ecosystems 4 Tourism ó Development of green tourism close to protected areas and adapted visitor man agement to preserve certain areas ó Protection of still functioning ecologically linked habitats ó Limited development of tourism infra structure on already existing sites ó Separation of the Alps into ecologically precious patches and anthropogenically transformed patches ó Further disney cation of the Alps in creased space use and infrastructure deployment ski stations in higher and more fragile regions due to global climate change ó Threat for many regions in the Alps in cluding intact sites with well functioning ecosystems and ecological connectivity ó denotes an essentially positive development ó represents a relatively stable neutral development ó signi es a problematic progression concerning ecological connectivity Source Guido Plassmann 2016

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