14 2 5 3 Alpine Nature 2030 Creating ecological connectivity for generations to come 185 ó denotes an essentially positive development ó represents a relatively stable neutral development ó signi es a problematic progression concerning ecological connectivity Source Guido Plassmann 2016 Active factors Development and trends in the next decades Impacts for the area in 2030 5 Spatial Planning ó Nature and environmental protection issues are generally and in a legally binding way included in spatial planning procedures ó Fragmentation of Alpine valleys is a topic of regional spatial planning and additional fragmentation is avoided ó Nature and environmental protection issues require speci c impact studies to be considered in spatial planning ó Worst case scenarios of fragmentation can be avoided ó Nature and environmental protection issues disregarded in spatial planning procedures ó Uncoordinated and uncontrolled settlement and land use policy No guarantee that spatial planners and politicians consider ecological connectivity issues 6 Agriculture and forestry ó Defragmentation is a requirement for intensive agriculture and forestry in Alpine valleys and integrated into management and subsidy policies ó The situation of the most intensively used Alpine valleys improves in respect to ecological connectivity ó Less intensive agriculture is promoted ó A higher share of extensive agriculture provides additional options for species migration through Alpine valleys ó No change of land use no consideration of ecological connectivity in the densely populated inner Alpine valleys ó Increased habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss due to intensive agriculture augmented by transport and energy infrastructures genetic exchange between population patches impossible Abandonment of traditional agricultural land use in higher altitudes with reforestation of open spaces 7 Governance processes ó Civil society and nature protection stakeholders participate in political decisions concerning their living space ó A genuine understanding and integration of ecological connectivity will be achieved in all local policies and legislation ó Governance processes are limited to representatives of stakeholder groups ó Integration of connectivity in areas with decisive land use con icts like the inner Alpine valleys will be limited ó No special development of governance measures in respect to the protection of biodiversity and ecological connectivity ó Very little probability that the issue will be integrated into local policies and legislation 8 Alpine social and cultural framework ó New sustainable model of economic and ecological development precipitated and preferred by Alpine inhabitants ó The situation of connectivity and biodiversity conservation in the inner Alpine valleys greatly improved by 2030 ó Stronger valorisation of natural values on a local level ó Better integration of natural values in local land use decisions local stakeholders empowered ó Global economic crises and enhancing further economic growth and consum erism is the rst and foremost concern of Alpine inhabitants ó Small chance for any consideration of ecological connectivity and biodiversity conservation issues

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