Reason Magazin 2014Q3 Seite 30

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The Economics of Climate Change While the cause remains uncertain the economic vulnerability in the face of devastating natural hazards is real As the world economy grows and changes the risk to businesses governments and to the public well being will be dominated by the combined dynamic effects of changes in hazards and the increasing evolu tion of economic vulnerability to extreme events The potential exists for economic risks from natural hazards to increase to levels where events with devastating and wide economic impact on countries and companies are no longer rare As highlighted in the latest Intergov ernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC report current knowledge on climate sci ence and hence current and future changes solely in the frequency and severity of natu ral hazards continues to develop But it is still clouded with uncertainty In contrast factors driving increases in vulnerability including the total assets exposed to these hazards and the consequences of those assets being affected continue to expand at a steady rate Interconnected economic growth is more often concentrated in coastal urban areas which increases the density of economic value in regions that are dispro portionately exposed to hazards from wind and water the two hazards most affected by changes in climate The general sets of recommendations offered from studies in the last 10 years by the insurance reinsurance and broker com munities are fairly obvious more research more effort to limit impact on the climate and better models However what is really needed is insight on how to translate the current science into action and to col laborate to accelerate the understanding and cost effective reduction of the evolv ing risk Earlier this year a session under the same title as this article was hosted by FM Global at the Understanding Risk con ference in London England with those objectives The following three panelists comprising experts on climate science public policy and economics led a topical discussion and engaged in dialogue with a diverse audience Professor Tim Palmer Royal Society research professor in climate physics Uni versity of Oxford England co director of the IDEA 30 Reason ISSUE 3 2014